Update to my November prediction for the 2026 Boston Marathon Cutoff Time and “What’s the deal with those older runners?”
On November 22, I posted my first analysis of the 2026 Boston Marathon cutoff time. Twenty of the BIB50 races had been completed by then.
Since then, four more BIB50 qualifiers have taken place — Philadelphia, CIM, Honolulu, and Dallas. In the November analysis, I made observations regarding trends shown in the earlier qualifier data. Below, I will update those trends for the new data and revisit my cutoff time projection.
1. The interest in marathon running continues to soar.
Year over year the number of finishers for the first twenty BIB50 qualifiers increased by more than 17%. That trend has cooled off some.
The combined number of finishers for these last four races was down by almost 5% since 2023.
Most surprising was CIM. Typically one of the top five qualifiers for Boston with robust annual growth, CIM saw an 11% decline in finishers this year.
The recent data pushes the year over year increase in the 24 BIB50 finishers to date down to 13.5%.
Does this suggest that we should expect a further deceleration of marathon finishers for the remaining 2026 Boston Marathon qualification period?
Probably not. Interest in marathoning still remains absurdly high as is evidenced by the recent news from Chicago. The Chicago Marathon reported that 160,000 runners applied for its 2025 race, a jump of 33% from 2024.
Still, the 13.5% aggregate growth rate in finishers year over year is more sustainable than the 17% seen a month ago. I will use the 13.5% for this update to the cutoff time prediction.
2. The increase in marathon finishers was very nearly outpacing the effect of the tightening of the 2026 Boston Marathon qualification standards.
The BAA dropped the 2026 qualification standards by five minutes for all runners under 60 years old (more about this peculiarity later). However, that change did not cause the large drop in qualified 2026 Boston potential applicants as expected. For the first 20 BIB50 qualifiers given the significant increase in finishers, the number of BQ’s by 2026 standards was down by only 3% from those same qualifiers a year ago based on the 2025 standards.
Philly, CIM, Honolulu, and Dallas did not maintain that trend in finishers. Including these races the total number of BIB50 qualified potential applicants is down by 6.6%. This is the number that most influences the cutoff time.
Using the same algorithm as I used in November, a review of the BIB50 data to date suggests a 2026 cutoff time in the range of 4:18 to 6:36 (5:27 +/- 1:09) down from the 4:45 to 7:15 (6:00 +/- 1:15) reported earlier.
Hence, if the current trends hold, we could still be looking at a cutoff time in the 5 minute range on top of the 5 minute drop in qualification standards. But the likelihood of third consecutive record number of applicants has diminished.
One other thing related to the November analysis:
3. For any given qualifier, race day weather is enormously influential.
The earlier analysis mentioned that ideal race day temperatures in Berlin and New York City drove up the BQ rates — referenced to the 2025 standards — in those two marathons this year. These races are huge. Each had more than 50,000 finishers.
These last four races are smaller. Amongst them, the largest contributer of BQ’s is CIM — 2,163 BQ’s this year (2026 standards) — and its temperature and 2025 BQ rate were similar to last year. Likewise, Honolulu did not move much since 2023. Both Philly and Dallas were hotter this year and their 2025 referenced BQ rates dropped slightly.
Assuming that the BAA allows the same number of entrants in 2026 as in 2025 (~24,000), weather remains the big wildcard influencing the cutoff time. Race day temperature in Boston on April 21 and in London on April 26 will determine whether we are at the high or the low end of the predicted cutoff time range.
Some have wondered about the BAA decision to keep the 2025 standards in place for runners over 60 years old while lopping five minutes off the qualifying time for all younger runners. Why the special treatment for the seniors?
I can’t answer that question as I prefer not to judge the intentions of the BAA. But I can provide some perspective.
For the first 24 BIB50 races of this qualifying period, runners over 60 years old accounted for only 6.41% of the total number of finishers. In the 2024 Boston Marathon, 11.2% of the finishers were from this demographic. Compared to the 2020 census, which reports that 20.6% of the U.S. population was older than 62, these numbers are small.
I am in this group. Cut us some slack. The bucket list is of special significance to older folk.
I re-ran my analysis assuming that the five minute tightening of the qualification standards applied across all ages. Using that lens, and given the tiny number of BQ’s from 60+ runners, the effect of the BAA’s qualification change is on the order of 18 seconds.
Thus, by my current analysis, five minutes across the board would mean a cutoff time of 5:09 +/- 1:09 compared to 5:27 +/- 1:09 with the standards as the BAA set them.
In other words, if my analysis is correct, a 60-year-old would need a qualifying time of 3:39:51 (3:45:00 less 5:09) if the five minutes were across the board and 3:44:33 (3:50:00 less 5:27) as is.
I like to compare it to Social Security. The younger crowd subsidizes their elders. Thank you for that.
