After two straight years of record applications for the iconic Boston Marathon, the Boston Athletic Association (BAA) tightened the qualification standards for the 2026 race by five minutes for all runners younger than 60. The standards for runners 60 years old and older were left unchanged.
Runners had been expecting the standards change ever since a cutoff time of 5 minutes 29 seconds (5:29) was imposed for the 2024 race. Yet the BAA left the same standards in place for another year resulting in an even longer — 6 minutes 51 seconds (6:51) — cutoff time for 2025.
It is reasonable to assume that the stricter standards will result in fewer qualified applicants for the Boston 2026 and, hence, a significantly shorter cutoff time. However, based on my review of qualifier data, that may not be where we are headed.
As always, predicting the cutoff time begins with an estimate for the number of qualified runners who will apply to run in Boston.
For my predictions, I look at trends in the number of finishers and BQ rates (percentage of finishers who meet their Boston qualification standard) of my “BIB50” qualifiers. The BIB50 includes the top North American Boston qualifiers plus London and Berlin. These races have accounted for roughly 60% of all entrants to the Boston Marathon. My assumption is that trends seen in the BIB50 are representative of the applicant pool as a whole.
One trend is clear and it is not so surprising: Interest in running marathons continues to soar.
As of November 16, twenty of the BIB50 races had completed, the last one being the Richmond Marathon.
During last year’s 2025 Boston Marathon qualifying period, these twenty events yielded 192,527 finishers. In the current, 2026 qualifying period, that number rose by over 17% to 225,492 finishers.
What really matters, though, is the number of BQs that are achieved. It gets interesting here. The chart below compares data from the current qualification period to the relevant portion of the 2025 qualification period*.
The chart shows that these twenty qualifiers yielded 27,817 BQs during the 2025 qualification period, a BQ rate of 14.45%. Judging by the 2025 standards, those same races in the current qualification period created 33,637 BQs. The BQ rate for the current period was 14.92%, not much different than the prior year. In aggregate for these qualifiers and judged by the same standards, runners are not getting significantly faster.
But the 2025 standards no longer apply. Adjusting for the current standards the BQ rate drops by nearly 20% to 11.97% and the number of BQs generated was 26,989.
This is an important point. Though the BQ rate dropped as expected, the number of BQs — the factor that drives applications to the 2026 Boston Marathon — is nearly the same, a mere 3% drop.
To be clear, the increased interest in marathoning as evidenced by a large increase in finishers, is very nearly outpacing the effect of the tighter standards.
It is still early in the qualification period for the 2026 Boston Marathon. There are some major hitters on deck — CIM, Boston, and London — and there is no guarantee that the current trend in marathoning popularity will persist through the rest of the cycle.
Indeed, there is another major effect that is worth noting: For any given qualifier, race day weather is enormously influential.
Here’s an example:
Berlin was one of the top five Boston Qualifiers for 2025. According to the BAA, 809 runners used their 2023 Berlin finish time to get into next April’s race. Berlin is well known for being a fast, flat course where world records are frequently set. In 2023, Berlin generated 7,559 BQs.
On race day in 2023, the temperature at the start was 55 degrees (F) and eventually rose to the high 60’s. I ran that race, it was hot. I had some trouble near the end as did many other runners.
The temperature at the start of this September’s Berlin Marathon was 48 degrees. It got a touch hotter — mid 50’s — as the day wore on. Spectators may have felt a chill but these are heavenly conditions for marathoners.
The average finish time in the hotter 2023 Berlin Marathon was 4:11:48. In 2024, seven degrees cooler, it was 4:02:11. Nearly 10 minutes faster! 8,790 runners BQ’d in 2024 Berlin to the new tighter standards.
Let that sink in.
Many more runners (1,231) BQ’d on the same course despite the stricter standards for those under age 60. Temperature makes that much of a difference.
You might think some other factor, like super shoes, might be at play here. Maybe. But I suspect that the effect of the super shoe revolution has approached saturation. Few serious runners are not racing in them. Weather conditions will overwhelm the best of shoes.
For example, I have run all of my 16 Majors in super shoes and have managed sub-4 hours only once — in 2023 Boston when the temperature throughout the race was 48 degrees, similar to Berlin’s conditions this year.
In projecting the results of the rest of the current qualification period, it is tempting to apply the 17% increase in finishers seen until now.
That approach fails sanity checking. Each of the remaining qualifiers has their own character that need be considered. The number of Boston Marathon finishers, for example, will never change by much given its fixed field size.
Rather, I reviewed historical data for each of the remaining BIB50 races and developed low and high estimates for the number of BQs that will come from them. This approach takes into account both established growth trends and race day conditions for each qualifier.
Combined with the qualifier data to date, I foresee between 56,224 and 63,998 total BQs for the BIB50 races.
Not all BQs become applications to run Boston. Using the same ratio as was seen for the 2025 qualification period, I arrive at between 32,610 and 37,119 applications for 2026 Boston. This compares to the record 36,393 applications received for 2025 Boston.
To get from applications to a cutoff time requires some insight into the distribution of BQs with respect to BQ margin. The graphs below helps with that perspective.
The graphs depict the distribution in BQ margin for the 2025 qualification compared to the current period. Both take into account the standards relevant to their qualification period.
The two graphs are very similar. There is a small increase in density near the zero margin point for the current period but not enough to act upon. Hence, a good first approximation is to assume that the distribution of BQ margin for the 2026 race will be close to what we had for 2025, that is, about 30 runners/second. I am also assuming that the number of accepted runners will be close to the 24,069 accepted for 2025.
Extrapolating from these data, I am projecting a 2026 Boston Marathon cutoff time between 4:45 and 7:15, or 6:00 +/- 1:15 (referenced to the new tighter standards.)
In addition to maintaining the surge of marathon popularity, to reach the high end of that cutoff range requires ideal conditions throughout the rest of the qualification period. Climate change suggests that difficult, warmer conditions — and fewer applications — are more likely. Nevertheless, something like a five minute cutoff time on top of the five minute standards change is a distinct possibility.
Last year at about this time I made my first prediction for the 2025 Boston cutoff time. Later on as more results came in I provided updates.
My initial estimates for 2025 followed a line of thought similar to what I describe above. They turned out to be fairly accurate. Therefore, I am comfortable using this approach again.
For 2025 Boston, my later updates employed a Utilization Rate model. That model projected the cutoff time by predicting the number of applicants from each qualifier race based on the prior year applications. That model didn’t work very well. It did not allow for a year over year increase in utilization rate. Thus, my later predictions last year underestimated the cutoff time significantly.
I expect to update my prediction in April after 2025 Boston and hope to have the bugs worked out of my Utilization Rate model by then. If I can’t improve on last year’s Utilization Rate model, I will stick with the above approach for the April update.
*These races occur from September at the start of the qualification period to mid-November after conclusion of the Richmond Marathon. Although both periods include 21 BIB50 races, each of them had a weather-related race cancellation. For Boston 2025, Twin Cities was cancelled due to excessive heat and for Boston 2026, REVEL Big Bear was cancelled due to snow.
