Thanks for your comments. You are correct that there were fewer qualifiers in yesterday's field but with the long cutoff they were a fast field with the potential for a large percentage of BQ's if the weather had been like that of 2023. But, alas, it was brutal yesterday and I saw a lot of carnage on the route and succumbed to the heat myself. However, my original analysis suggested that at the low end the BQ rate could be more like the ~30% historical value and that is roughly what happened. I wouldn't know how to account for race day on Easter Monday especially because in 2025 Patriot's Day (e.g. marathon day) will be the 250th anniversary of the original Revolutionary War battle and there will be a mighty celebration of that, which I believe will more than compensate for anyone who would stay away because of Easter. The bottom line, though, is with fewer BQ's generated yesterday my update (to be posted within a week or so) will move closer to the "Medium" case.