Thank you for reading the post and for your comments.

Your point about the possible shift in the distribution of BQ times is interesting and should be quantifiable. I will look into that.

Not sure about the international marathons, though. Yes there is increased interest but historically they have shown low utilization rates and so, except for London and Berlin, the B.A.A. never mentions them. I do wonder about China because that country moves markets. But again, as far as I can tell, low utilization rates for now. That may change in 2025, of course, but for now, I don't have any responsible way of including that in my model other than what I mention in my post.

And as I mentioned before, the huge increase in applications for some of the majors doesn't necessarily translate into more applications to Boston and all three of the ones you mention won't affect 2025. Perhaps it will affect 2026 but only if this surging interest leads to larger field sizes (probably) and brings with it runners who can meet the current Boston standards (hmm...not so sure). We'll soon see.

I had a great time at the race today. Thanks for mentioning it. I didn't BQ but loved meeting friends and making new ones. But I will still be running in Boston next year anyway because as a runner with Parkinson's disease I have access to their Adaptive Athlete and Para Athlete programs as long as I meet those qualification standards, which are less aggressive.