No it doesn't. By my calculations a change of one minute corresponds to about 2800 applicants. The BAA reported that the 5th most used qualifier for the 2024 Boston Marathon was the California International Marathon with 685 entrants. It would take the sum of many, many international marathons that I haven't already included in my modeling to surpass even 1000 more applicants and that isn't supportable by the data. Nevertheless I am working through the numbers and I'll see what I get.