Hi Paul,

Thank you the kind words and the in-depth fodder for thoughts. Some comments on them in turn:

1. I hesitate to do further validation on the Pandemic-influenced years because there are so many other variables thrown in that I suspect will make it hard to draw useful conclusions. For example, so few qualifiers actually took place in 2020 and to some extent 2021 that 2022 Boston had nearly double the length of the qualification period. 2019 and earlier might be interesting to explore, however.

2. That ones a toughie. There are some apps (e.g. Stryd) that attempts to quantify the hit that temperature and humidity does to finish times. I am very sensitive to temperature - my performance tanks anywhere near 60 degrees F. Others, have no issue with it whatsoever. The variability from runner to runner might make any attempt of little value. However, providing historical average and standard deviations for each qualifier as a function of temperature and humidity might be a start. Almost anyone could provide that data though.

3. Yes, this is spot on and I would be interested in helping the running community out in this way. I don't want to get ahead of myself here, though. If my prediction turns out to be way off then no one will be interested in such a service. We'll know in a few weeks.

-Joe